To start, we want to wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year, and thank you for being part of our community! Big Announcement:
After much contemplation, Ansley has chosen to pursue an exciting new opportunity away from day-to-day advisory operations into managing the support staff of multiple offices in SC within a large firm. While we are sad to see her go, we are incredibly proud of her and excited for this next step in her career. She will make a lot of people better.
Ansley has been an integral part of the Harbour team for seven years. She has truly been a joy to work alongside—an incredible supporter behind the scenes who remained consistently dependable and willing to help wherever she was needed. While we will miss her greatly, we wish her nothing but the very best and much success in her new endeavors when she departs at the end of December.
Looking Ahead:
You probably already know that Martha is fully trained, licensed under Ansley’s mentorship and has been helping with operations since joining us two years ago. She will be taking over administrative functions as we transition. We have already begun the hiring process for additional support and have several promising candidates in the pipeline.
If you know of anyone with a sharp mind, high attention to detail, and a genuine heart for customer service, please let us know!
From Ansley:
I have truly valued my time with Matt, Chris and Martha and getting to know and help each one of you. This was a very thoughtful and difficult decision and while I am grateful for the last 7 years, the move is the right next step for me and my family and one that allows me to continue growing professionally. While I am excited for what’s ahead, this transition is bittersweet. I am truly sad to be leaving behind a fantastic group of people. I am incredibly grateful for the trust, support and relationships built during my time here and I appreciate the opportunity to have worked with all of you. I leave the team in good hands and Martha will be working closely with you going forward until a replacement can be found. I wish you all the best moving forward. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
Taxes:
We have been incredibly busy working with everyone on year-end activities. We are excited that for the first time, we feel almost everything is completed before getting into the thick of the Holidays! While it might be late to process some items, if there are additional requests or concerns, please reach out.
2026 COLA updates are now published. Attached are what to expect in such things as tax rates, gifting limits, 401k limits, social security increases, etc. While the tax environment for ’26 is very close to ’25, here is a quick summary of some of what we can expect in ’26: higher SALT deductions, additional deduction over 65, a new .5% AGI floor for charitable contributions, and a new above the line deduction for charitable contributions for those not itemizing.
Markets:
As we close out the last quarter of 2025, markets continue to reward patience, selectivity, and humility. Artificial intelligence remains one of the more profitable trades in the market, even as credible signs of excess are beginning to emerge. We’ve been clear that the presence of a bubble does not mean the opportunity has ended—but it does mean risk has become more unevenly distributed. Importantly, we believe the most acute bubble risk sits in private markets rather than public ones. The late-1990s offer a useful contrast: companies like Pets.com were publicly traded, unprofitable, and widely owned. Today, many of the most speculative and unprofitable AI ventures remain private, funded through venture capital and private credit channels. Large, publicly traded technology firms—while not cheap—are generally profitable, liquid, and better positioned to weather a normalization in valuations.
That distinction matters because we continue to monitor private credit as a growing area of concern, something we’ve discussed in prior commentaries. Private AI and private credit are increasingly intertwined, as capital-intensive AI development relies heavily on non-bank financing structures. While we do not believe this represents a repeat of the 2008 crisis—given differences in scale, leverage, and systemic liquidity—it does warrant close attention. The opacity of private markets, combined with rising refinancing risk, makes this an area where small cracks could widen quickly. For this reason, we are watching financials and the most expensive segments of technology particularly closely, with an emphasis on balance sheet strength and cash flow durability.
On the policy front, the Federal Reserve lowered rates again this quarter, reinforcing our view that monetary conditions are likely to remain accommodative. With a new Fed Chair expected to lean toward stimulus, and with political incentives building as we move toward midterm elections, it is reasonable to expect continued support for asset prices. This environment does not eliminate risk—but it does shape it. In that context, we continue to like our allocation to gold, not as a trade, but as a long-term hedge against policy error, currency debasement, and geopolitical uncertainty.
Finally, we’ve invested in new analytical tools from our friends at Perscient, Parallax, and Perscient Pro to further strengthen how we monitor portfolios. These platforms allow us to better map portfolio exposures, stress-test assumptions, analyze correlations, and understand how risk factors interact across changing market regimes. In practical terms, they help us see around corners—not by predicting the future, but by identifying concentrations, fragilities, and unintended bets before they become problems. In an environment where risks are more subtle and less visible on the surface, this kind of clarity is increasingly essential.
As always, our goal remains the same: to participate thoughtfully in upside while remaining disciplined about downside risk, grounded in data, and guided by long-term perspective rather than short-term noise. |
