4th Quarter
Hello all! Well, the market does not like uncertainty. Given that most polls showed a 50/50 split, the markets have handled election uncertainty very well essentially trading where they started in mid-September up until today. I will not clutter the airwaves with political commentary as there is plenty to consume, but I will share some investing thoughts as the market starts “the Trump trade”. I believe it was also notable that polling lines were very peaceful, organized and cordial, much like what we saw in 2022. Also lost in the news, the Fed has its ‘decision day’ today, which is likely to be another rate cut. Below:
-Returning from a conference 2 weeks ago, I heard from many political/tax/investing experts on the impact of the election on taxes and markets. We will incorporate these into upcoming reviews here in the 4th Quarter.
-We remain bearish on bonds. This continues to serve us very well as bonds gave up nearly all of their gains on the year in the past 45 days as long-term interest rates have climbed. Today that trend continues.
-Raymond James is hosting a conference about the markets post-election that is open to clients today, details below if you want to hear a more detailed discussion.
-I believe advances in technology will continue at a breathtaking pace. The rollout of new tech has followed a familiar pattern: offer at low price to gain widespread adoption, continue to innovate such that consumers become dependent on new technology (this is where we are now in AI), then raise pricing to bring in profits that reward investors for the initial investments. This cycle is accelerating in several areas, most especially AI.
-We remain vigilant to what we believe could derail the markets: private credit & shadow banking. We’ve been listening to numerous calls on topic and are contributing to a working group from around the country, so I’m hopeful we’ll be well positioned for these trades.
Last Months’ Events:
In early October, we hosted an investment group here in Charleston: Epsilon Theory (https://www.fable.team/charleston-connect). The conference was designed to inspire numerous 1-1 conversations held over a weekend and it did not disappoint. Politics, markets, charitable activities, and how we can all be ‘better people’ were all discussed at length. There were leaders from industry, government, academia, real estate and finance from all over country. I feel unbelievably blessed to consider this group friends and resources to our own thought research.
In late October, I visited M Financial’s annual conference. The topics were primarily tax and planning related, especially in context of potential changes post-election. Most of the topics were related to business owners, so I cannot wait to share some of these ideas during our upcoming calls as appropriate.
Year end:
Hopefully you have saved date for our Wine & Chocolate event 12/4!
We are also conducting our year-end reviews, and as always using this attached document to help guide. Please let us know if you have any special concerns, most are discussing RMD’s, charitable contributions, year end 1099 expectations, and sometimes Roth conversions.
Have a great week!
